KTLN speaks to lots of businesses and property owners in Kalkan, and the message we are getting is that so far, 2011 has not been as busy as last year.

There are reasons for this, which we explore below.

But the truth is, Kalkan is currently better value than ever.

The statistics
For Turkey as a whole, between January and May 2011, there were 9.3 million visitors, of all nationalities, compared to 8.1 million for the same period in 2010.  That's an increase of 15%.

However, if you look at British visitors only, the total number up to May 2011 was 601,000, compared to 585,000 May 2010.  Admittedly, it is an increase, but of only 3%.

Zooming in on Antalya region, as at 30th June 2011, the number of tourist visitors to that region was up by about 4%.  However, the number of British visitors was slightly down, year on year, for the first time in recent years. 

So what is going on?
This picture of overall numbers up, but British visitors down, or at least not up that much, is reflected in what we have heard in Kalkan, and also from other reliable sources along the Aegean coast, in places such as Bodrum, Didim and Altinkum. 

Anecdotally, it is also widely claimed that British visitors are typically spending less.  This stacks up, with enquiries we have made locally. 

Receipts are down in Kalkan
KTLN has spoken to all of the banks in Kalkan, and of the five banks that have a significant number of business customers in the tourist industry, all but one confirmed that overall receipts are down.  One bank said overall receipts were actually up - so clearly some businesses are still thriving. 

Just down the road in Kaş, the tourist office view is that visitor numbers are holding up, and are comparable to last year.  Kaş gets lots of Turkish visitors - it is said to be the second most popular coastal holiday destination for Turkish people, after Bodrum. 

Swings and roundabouts
There are several factors that will influence people, in deciding whether or not to come to Kalkan.  Of course, each of us has our own personal reasons, and Kalkan is a wonderful, sunny, blue-sky holiday destination, but there are some general factors at work.

On the positive side, we know from KTLN surveys that there is a massive loyalty factor in Kalkan, and repeat guests make up a significant proportion of visitors.  In this year's KTLN survey, 58% of visitors told us they have been coming to Kalkan for more than 5 years.

Just under half of respondents who are not resident in Kalkan, own property here.  Owning a property in Kalkan, will make you more inclined to return.

Weak lira means better value than ever
As we recently reported, the exchange rate is good for British tourists at the moment, making your Turkish holiday spending money go further.  This 21% increase in purchasing power, (compared to August 2010), is in contrast to the Eurozone, where the same British pound is currently worth 3% less than it was 12 months ago.

Furthermore, political and social unrest seen in neighbouring countries, over the last year or so - places such as Egypt, Tunisia and Greece, has made them less attractive as holiday destinations.  Perhaps some travellers will be giving Turkey a try instead. 

On the other hand...
There are some negatives.  The most obvious of these must surely be the harsh economic climate back in Britain.

Where to begin?  Lower than inflation pay deals.  VAT at a record 20%.  Pension schemes in trouble, requiring workers to pay more in to their pension pots.  Gas up by 18%.  Petrol at £6 a gallon.  On top of that job security is a real concern for some people.  It is hardly surprising that many people are thinking long and hard about whether they can afford to have the luxury of a foreign holiday.

In Kalkan, eating out has become more expensive, and anecdotally, we hear that increasing numbers of people are inclined to eat at home.  This is bad news for restaurants, but the supermarkets and butchers are doing well, and we have noticed the emergence of businesses who will provide a catering service at your holiday home.

A torrid time for tour operators
Add to all of the above, the recent collapse of Holidays 4U/Aegean Flights, which is bound to have a direct, and negative impact on tourist numbers.  Of course, many people should eventually get their money back, but in the meantime can they afford to rebook - indeed, do they have the confidence to rebook?

To entice UK travellers, some tour operators are tempting them with low priced deals, as reported in the following Hurriyet Daily News article: Cheap Holidays

At the prices on offer, one has to ask whether it is worthwhile or profitable for Turkish hotels  to be involved.

Eggs in one basket
After a couple of good years, relatively speaking, it looks like this is going to be a tough year for Kalkan, mainly due to external factors beyond its control. 

The high dependency on British holidaymakers means that if the UK is taking some strong medicine to 'get better', in the short term at least, Kalkan can expect to feel the side effects of that medicine.

Kalkan may not quite have all its eggs in one basket, but you if you put all of the non-British visitors together, you would not have much of an omlette. 

Value for money
The irony is that there has never been a better time to come to Kalkan.  With an ever increasing number of places to stay, the law of supply and demand means prices are very competitive.

And as we have already mentioned, the exchange rate is amazingly good right now for British travellers, with your pound buying you around 21% more goods and services than last year.

The amount of choice, and the general standards in Kalkan restaurants is still exceptionally good, in comparison to other places in Turkey and other Europe holiday spots, although an increase in prices does chip away at the exchange rate bonus.

We hope that all KTLN readers who are not resident in Kalkan, get a chance to visit their favourite holiday destination this year.  In the meantime, KTLN is always here for you, so you can get your Kalkan fix.

 

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